The 2025 holiday shopping season is poised to set new records and redefine retail, largely fueled by extraordinary growth in artificial intelligence (AI)-powered shopping tools. Adobe Analytics projects that AI-driven shopping traffic will surge by 520% year-over-year, underpinning an overall online holiday spending forecast of $253.4 billion in the U.S., marking a 5.3% increase over 2024. This transformative impact of AI is reshaping how consumers research, discover, and purchase gifts during the most critical retail period of the year.
Table of Contents
The Rise of AI in Holiday Shopping
Adobe’s prediction builds on the remarkable momentum seen in 2024 when AI-enabled interactions with retail sites jumped 1,300%. With advancements in generative AI models, real-time product cards, and instant checkout capabilities, shoppers can now leverage AI comprehensively—from early product research to final purchase decisions.
AI shopping has become mainstream with over 33% of consumers already using AI tools for online shopping this season. Key uses include product research (53%), personalized recommendations (40%), deal discovery (36%), and gift inspiration (30%). This technological shift signals a new era for both consumers and retailers.
How Adobe Tracks and Predicts AI Shopping Trends
Adobe’s robust analytics platform, powering insights for many of the top 100 U.S. online retailers, analyzes over 1 trillion retail site visits and 100 million product SKUs across 18 categories. This extensive data allows Adobe to forecast not just total holiday sales, but also segment behaviors, including AI usage patterns, peak shopping days, and product category trends.
The AI shopping surge is expected to peak during the important 10 days before Thanksgiving, coinciding with heightened marketing campaigns and consumer buying frenzy. Categories witnessing top AI-driven engagement include toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.
Key Trends Shaping AI-Driven Holiday Shopping in 2025
1. Hyper-Personalized AI Recommendations
AI systems leverage deep learning to analyze individual preferences, seasonal gifting trends, and past purchase behaviors to offer tailored product suggestions. These advanced recommendations enhance shopper satisfaction and basket size by providing meaningful, relevant options.
2. Conversational and Visual Shopping Assistance
Generative AI powers smart chat assistants capable of answering product queries and navigating comparisons instantly. Technologies blending AR/VR with AI create immersive shopping experiences—allowing consumers to virtually try products and visualize gifts in real settings.
3. Omnichannel Integration
AI bridges online browsing, social media influence, and in-store pick-up options by forecasting inventory needs and purchase intents. Social commerce platforms now utilize AI to seamlessly convert content engagement into transactions.
4. Dynamic Pricing and Supply Chain Optimization
Retailers use AI-driven pricing algorithms to adjust discounts in real-time based on demand, inventory, and competitor pricing. Predictive analytics help avoid stock-outs and optimize delivery timing during peak holiday traffic.
5. Emotional and Cultural AI Gifting Intelligence
AI understands complex social relationships and cultural nuances to recommend thoughtful gifts, enhancing emotional connections between giver and recipient.
6. Ethical and Sustainable Shopping Guidance
AI incorporates data related to carbon footprints and ethical sourcing, empowering consumers to make environmentally responsible and socially conscious purchases this season.
7. AI-Powered Deal Discovery and Spontaneous Purchase
Machine learning algorithms detect moments of high receptivity during browsing sessions to surface unexpected but desirable product suggestions, driving impulse buying.
Impact on Retailers and Consumers
Retailers leveraging AI-powered tools can personalize marketing at scale, improving conversion rates and customer loyalty. Consumers benefit from streamlined shopping journeys, informative virtual assistants, and improved deal-finding capabilities, making holiday shopping more efficient and enjoyable.
Mobile commerce will capture a record 56.1% share of online transactions in 2025, further accentuated by AI integration on mobile platforms and apps. Buy-now-pay-later services are also growing, supporting financially stretched consumers while keeping festive spending on track.
Top AI Shopping Use Cases Reported by Consumers
Researching products before purchase (53%)
Receiving product recommendations (40%)
Finding better deals (36%)
Getting gift inspiration (30%)
Utilizing voice-activated AI assistants for searches
AI and Peak Holiday Shopping Days
Key dates expected to generate record e-commerce traffic in 2025 include:
Cyber Monday: $14.2 billion expected, up 6.3% from last year
Black Friday: $11.7 billion, up 8.3%
Thanksgiving Day: $6.4 billion, nearly 5% increase
During the full holiday season (Nov 1 – Dec 31), Adobe expects 10 days where daily online sales exceed $5 billion, a rise from 7 days in 2024.
FAQs
Q1: What role will AI play in the 2025 holiday shopping season?
A1: AI will assist consumers in product research, personalized recommendations, deal discovery, and gift ideas, driving a predicted 520% increase in AI-related shopping traffic.
Q2: How much are consumers expected to spend online during the 2025 holiday season?
A2: Adobe projects total U.S. online holiday spending to reach $253.4 billion, a 5.3% increase from the previous year.
Q3: What are the most popular product categories for AI-assisted shopping?
A3: Toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care products are anticipated to see the largest boosts from AI-powered shopping tools.
Q4: When will AI shopping traffic peak during the holiday season?
A4: Peak AI shopping activity is expected during the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving, when many consumers start their holiday buying.
Q5: How is AI changing the consumer shopping experience?
A5: AI enables personalized recommendations, virtual try-ons, real-time price adjustments, emotional gifting intelligence, and omnichannel seamless experiences.
Q6: What technologies complement AI in holiday shopping?
A6: Augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), voice assistants, and social commerce platforms enhance AI’s effectiveness in making holiday shopping interactive and convenient.
Q7: How can retailers prepare for the AI-driven holiday season?
A7: Retailers should invest in AI-powered marketing and inventory tools, optimize mobile shopping experiences, and offer flexible payment options like buy-now-pay-later.
Conclusion
The 2025 holiday shopping season is set to be unprecedented, with AI technologies profoundly influencing consumer behavior and retail strategies. Adobe’s forecast signals a deep integration of AI in every step of the shopping journey, from inspiration to purchase. Consumers will enjoy highly personalized, efficient, and engaging experiences, while retailers leveraging AI will optimize sales and customer loyalty. This holiday season, AI is not just a tool—it is the engine driving the future of commerce.
